Another middle-of-the-night quick resource share: the Annie E. Casey Foundation, in collaboration with Organizational Research Services (ORS), presents this document on how to construct a theory of change that describes how you intend to create impact by building on various outcomes that ultimately lead to your organizational goal (i.e., some form of individual or social transformation). ORS has also published this handy brochure on different techniques for mapping out a theory of change, from linear logic models to more complex narrative and diagram approaches, and also how to weigh the pros and cons of each one.
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